Dallas Mavericks Playoff Preview

After finishing the Bubble seeding games 3-5, the 7 seeded Dallas Mavericks will face the 2 seed LA Clippers Monday night @ 8 PM CST. The Clippers finished the year holding the 2 spot (behind the Mavs) in offensive rating, and the 4 spot in defensive rating. This makes them the only team in the west to be in the top 5 of both categories, the scary thing is they haven't played at full strength yet in this Bubble, & only played 11 games all season fully loaded. In those 11 games the Clippers went 10-1, displaying dominance at both ends of the court making them the odds on favorite to win the NBA championship. The Mavericks have their work cut out for them.

The Mavericks got swept by the Clippers in the season series. The closest game Dallas had was a 3 point loss back in January as Luka and Kawhi dueled scoring 36 a piece and the clippers without George. Just from looking at the numbers, it seems Dallas has no shot at winning this round. I'll tell you why these numbers need some context, and how the Mavericks have a great chance to upset the larry-o favorites. 

Kristaps Porzingis

Kristaps is without a doubt the key to winning this matchup. The Clippers have no answer for his size and speed. Lets run through potential matchups KP will have to face going forward: 

Zubac: Their only 7 footer, too slow to hang with Porzingis, cannot cover on the perimeter, gets lost in the P&R.

 Harrell: Tough but undersized at 6'7. Will be able to slow KP down in the post, but over 7 games is going to struggle to keep KP from scoring. Cannot contest Jumper. 

Green: 6'8 227, not big enough to hang with KP, will mostly be used as a goon if he gets minutes

Patterson: 6'8 230, Same as Green; too small. Can't hang in the post. 

Kawhi: Strong enough to throw KP off the block, can get rebounds, but would be wasted in guarding KP because that jumper is unguardable. Can only effect Porzingis minimally. 

Morris: 6'8 too small to guard KP. 

Noah: Joakim might be the answer to guarding KP, but great offensive players like Kristaps will find a way. Having Noah out there will kill the Clippers in other areas. He is unswitchable. 

KP making all Bubble 2nd team is huge. He has been HOT, averaging 30.5 PPG in the restart. This is not the same KP the Clippers have seen. In games against the clippers he has only scored over 20 once (in the orlando bubble game) and has averaged 33.6% shooting overall.Keep in mind, this was injury recovery, learning how to play in a system KP of old. If he plays like he's been playing, the Clippers aren't gonna know what hit em, and won't know how to stop it. "We are a very Dangerous team offensively and on any given night...we can beat anybody with our offense...we want to be a complete team." KP said when asked about how this team will fare come playoff time. He is locked in and I'm excited to see him go nuts in his first playoff series of his career. 

Moving Seth to the bench 

Sure, moving Seth to the bench will eliminate that extra playmaker to put alongside Luka but I think it would greatly benefit the starters defensively and the bench offensively. Additionally, Seth has missed a ton of time playing with the starters since the season restarted. They’ve been playing without him in the starting unit anyways. We saw how well Maxi guarded Kawhi, and we saw how good MKG can be on defense with his switching abilities. I think either of those options, preferably Maxi, should start alongside KP to limit easy buckets in the paint. I wouldn't be saying this if the Clippers didn't have such a loaded bench unit. Moving seth out there would give someone to match Lou Will in scoring by becoming a focal point of the bench offense. It puts too much pressure on the starters when there isn't a true scoring option in that second unit. Throwing Curry out there with Wright, MKG, KP and Burke looks like the perfect Carlisle offense, he loooooves those three guard units. The problems that could arise from doing this is that the Clippers can play big. If they threw out Harrell Green and Patterson, the Mavericks would be too small to contend. The depth of the Clippers is their biggest strength, it's going to be on Carlisle to fit the right pieces in to limit their effectiveness. 

Delon Wright

Delon Wright is one of the few players on the Mavericks roster with some playoff experience. In the 2018 playoffs with the Raptors (only time he got real minutes) he racked up 15 steals in 10 games, averaging 8.6 points. He is going to have to step up on the defensive end, as he will be thrown at Lou Will off the bench. Delon Wright, after everything he has put us through this season, is going to be an x factor in this series and going forward. Like it or not (not...) he is going to be getting big minutes and a huge role. 

I have the Mavericks winning this game in 6 games, even though I think the Clippers are the best team in the league. Like Porzingis said, the Mavs can hang with anybody just with offense alone. It will be scary if their defense catches up come playoff time. 

For me, it will have to be timing of wins to give the mavericks a chance at stealing this one. You cannot come out flat and drop two in a row or it's over. IF the Mavericks go up 2-1, they will win the series without a doubt in my mind. 

We cannot forget, this is year one of Luka-KP, both have made incredible strides and team construction is improving. The goal was the playoffs, and here we are. Sure, I will be disappointed if they drop this series to the Clippers; but there are only good things ahead for this franchise.