What can we learn from the soccer restart?

As the NBA restart looms large, there has been a flurry of speculation by media and fans. “What if LeBron goes down?”.....”What if Kawhi gets covid?”.... “Will the basketball even be good?”...”How do you create a playoff atmosphere without fans?”....”Will the champion have an asterisk?” All of which are valid questions. To offer my speculation, as a casual European soccer fan, we can use the challenges and successes of the EPL, La Liga, Serie A and Bundesliga to shed light on what we can expect from the NBA restart. 

Injuries. The scar tissue in my brain from watching KD’s calf ripple in game 6 haunts me when considering whether the restart is appropriate. Just yesterday, former Chelsea legend Gary Cahill collapsed from a noncontact hamstring injury, gifting his former team Chelsea an easy opening goal. Sergio Aguero, the prolific Manchester City striker, suffered an injury that could keep him out of the champions league restart in August. However, for the most part, megastars like Messi, Lewandowski, and Ronaldo have avoided injuries. To attribute the injuries that have happened to players in these leagues is mostly flawed. It is impossible to trace a throughline from the stoppage in play to a player like Aguero, who has struggled with injuries often in his career. The throughline for KD’s injury was simple. No player misses NBA finals games without a significant injury and with the franchise, fan, and media pressure building, KD opted to return when he shouldn’t have. Although KD’s injury is more recent memory, the better injury example for this scenario would have to be that of Derrick Rose. Following the last significant hiatus in NBA play, the 2011-12 lockout, Rose tore his ACL after 39 of the 66 games were played in the shortened season. This would set off a string of constant devastating injuries which ruined the career of one of the most promising young players the NBA has ever seen. But was this injury a result of the stoppage or bad luck? For a player of Rose’s style, injuries were most likely inevitable. The fearless hyper athletic barrage of the most dangerous plays in basketball were sadly bound to end poorly. Whether a stoppage in play and quick restart during the lockout contributed to an accelerated injury timeline for Rose? Barring a major sports science breakthrough, we will never know.

With this evidence in mind, I do not believe injuries will play a more significant part in the restart than they normally do in the playoffs (excluding an outbreak of covid). A significant injury may happen and the narrative of the NBA restart endangering players may emerge. In that case we can all listen to Stephen A. have an outspoken opinion on the issue straight from the thesaurus. But any significant injury will be the same as Rose’s, we will never be able to find the true cause. With that being said, I may grimace a little harder watching Zion’s 280 lbs hit the deck or Ja trying to plop his balls on top of someone’s head while throwing down a vicious slam. For the sake of players like Zion, Ja, KP, and others, I hope franchises maintain the long view and manage their loads cautiously. A plethora of injuries in this NBA restart could mean long term consequences.

Play. I’m no soccer purest, just a silly American who enjoys the game. But I have thoroughly enjoyed the restart of European soccer. Players seem more relaxed in situations which allows for more clinical finishing from my perspective. Dozens of beautiful free kicks from players throughout the leagues have found the back of the net. My hypothesis is that the anticipation of scoring one of these beautiful goals in front of fans causes players to send them soaring over the goal. Without fans, its more like a practice atmosphere where they probably hit 9/10 free kicks perfectly. This could result in some truly incredible plays during the NBA restart as the lack of emotions from the crowd allow players to concentrate on their craft.

As for team results, previously dominant teams have remained atop with minor slipups in their records. Most notably the champions, Liverpool suffering a 4-0 defeat to Man City just a week after they clinched the premier league title. Before the hiatus Liverpool had only lost 1 game all season. Man City is also 2nd in the league, so this was no upset despite Liverpool’s dominance this season. Barcelona and Real Madrid currently in a race for the La Liga title have also had minor slipups, but have maintained their winning ways. And Bayern Munich have continued their dominance in Germany clinching both the league title and league cup since the restart. That being said, I don’t envision an NBA restart where one of the Grizzlies, Pelicans, or Kings take the Lakers to 7 games in the first round or the Nuggets and Pacers make a miracle a run to match up in the NBA finals. The superior teams will remain superior, with the proposition of some dark horse teams making runs in the playoffs (like there are every year). There could be surprises in these playoffs, but lets not forget Denver player Portland last year in the west semis and two years ago the Celtics made a run to the east finals with their young upstart team. Surprises happen every year, thats why we all watch. 

Fans. The reality of no fans will be the most foreign during this NBA restart. The soccer leagues have had varying responses to that reality. Most commonly advertising covering the empty seats and crowd noise into the TV to provide the familiar sound of english soccer fans singing in the background. I’m not sure if the NBA will opt for this option. Soccer fans filling the stadium with their songs is an iconic feature of a European soccer game. Lakers fans chanting “MVP...MVP...MVP” for Alex Caruso, not so much. That being said, the NBA playoff atmosphere is impossible to recreate. Goal celebrations in soccer have been notably tame without the energy of fans and I expect the same for the NBA celebrations. What will it look like when the NBA crowns a champion on the court after the finals conclude? Usually players stand on the podium basking in the glory of their ecstatic fans. When Bayern Munich clinched the league cup in Germany over the weekend, they were presented with a trophy which they passed with smiles and excitement, but I felt the ceremony lacked the true bliss you see in the players eyes in front of their fans. It will take some getting used to, for the fans and the players.

The speculation is fun, it keeps us busy and gives us something to talk about. Without the speculation about sports returning our alternate options for conversation are mostly dark and depressing. Amidst a pandemic and mass demonstrations in our streets, playing basketball seems very small. Talking and speculating about it seems even smaller. With covid rising at the current rate its hard to imagine basketball being played considering the possibility of an overwhelmed healthcare system at the end of this month. Although if I was an NBA player living in Texas or Florida, I would probably be more likely to trust my health in the NBA than the current government leaders in those states and nationally. In addition, whatever decisions players make on demonstrations or sitting out altogether is their decision. None of us stand in any position to criticize what they eventually decide to do. Basketball is indeed a distraction from the self examining spot our country finds itself in. However it may be a distraction we all need.